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Red73
287727.8
511211.6
50918.9
Blue59
584613.4
199120.8
55822.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions686740506080901007359

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2877
#12
27.80.5
28.428.0
Auto8.8
Teleop10.0
End9.1
red by 5.2
558
#22
22.60.5
25.224.7
Auto7.6
Teleop5.8
End9.3
Second
509
#23
18.90.5
22.221.8
Auto6.5
Teleop2.9
End9.5
blue by 1.8
1991
#31
20.80.5
21.320.7
Auto8.1
Teleop8.2
End4.5
Third
5112
#28
11.60.5
13.112.6
Auto6.0
Teleop3.6
End2.0
blue by 1.8
5846
#35
13.40.5
16.516.0
Auto2.9
Teleop6.9
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
18%Cargo oddsMissed74%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
76%Hangar oddsEarned62%Hangar oddsMissed