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Red98
524214.7
300540.9
81835.1
Blue120
58738.3
209626.1
153341.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9211505015020098120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#52
40.90.6
43.844.3
Auto11.6
Teleop22.9
End6.5
blue by 1.0
1533
#21
41.90.8
44.244.9
Auto10.7
Teleop23.4
End7.8
Second
818
#31
35.10.6
32.032.6
Auto8.7
Teleop15.8
End10.6
blue by 3.2
587
#40
38.30.8
36.437.1
Auto7.4
Teleop19.6
End11.4
Third
5242
#65
14.70.6
13.614.2
Auto4.1
Teleop3.7
End6.9
blue by 11.4
2096
#63
26.10.8
24.224.9
Auto9.6
Teleop9.3
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
90%Cargo oddsEarned93%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
91%Hangar oddsEarned88%Hangar oddsEarned