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Red0
368334.8
467844.4
461712.9
Blue81
490735.9
540636.8
503611.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9989020406080120140160081

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4678
#1DQ
44.40.2
44.344.4
Auto12.5
Teleop20.3
End11.7
red by 7.6
36.80.4
37.236.8
Auto11.0
Teleop16.1
End9.7
Second
3683
#2DQ
34.80.2
34.634.8
Auto7.7
Teleop20.8
End6.3
blue by 1.2
35.90.4
36.335.9
Auto9.9
Teleop17.2
End8.8
Third
4617
#9DQ
12.90.2
12.712.9
Auto5.4
Teleop4.8
End2.7
red by 1.8
5036
#11
11.10.4
11.511.1
Auto4.5
Teleop2.1
End4.5