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Red65
461712.9
37397.8
540636.8
Blue64
502413.3
687511.6
503225.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59553040507080906564

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.80.7
40.341.0
Auto11.0
Teleop16.1
End9.7
red by 11.6
5032
#10
25.20.3
22.723.0
Auto6.8
Teleop15.1
End3.2
Second
12.90.7
8.99.6
Auto5.4
Teleop4.8
End2.7
blue by 0.5
5024
#12
13.30.3
16.216.5
Auto6.0
Teleop3.6
End3.8
Third
3739
#15
7.80.7
5.36.0
Auto1.0
Teleop3.3
End3.5
blue by 3.8
6875
#14
11.60.3
13.013.3
Auto3.2
Teleop4.7
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
35%Cargo oddsMissed59%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
48%Hangar oddsEarned41%Hangar oddsMissed