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Red49
469210.0
281131.6
99715.1
Blue52
404310.9
299023.8
252120.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions65632040801004952

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.60.5
33.332.8
Auto11.9
Teleop14.9
End4.7
red by 7.8
23.81.0
26.725.7
Auto6.6
Teleop9.7
End7.5
Second
997
#9
15.10.5
14.914.3
Auto1.9
Teleop-0.4
End13.6
blue by 5.7
2521
#11
20.81.0
22.922.0
Auto4.1
Teleop9.4
End7.2
Third
4692
#12
10.00.5
9.08.5
Auto3.9
Teleop3.4
End2.7
blue by 0.9
10.91.0
12.912.0
Auto3.8
Teleop2.9
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
32%Cargo oddsMissed56%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
63%Hangar oddsEarned90%Hangar oddsEarned