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Red84
221217.8
590017.9
402044.4
Blue126
318216.7
34040.5
582739.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions839205015084126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4020
#44
44.40.1
46.746.7
Auto13.0
Teleop20.6
End10.8
red by 4.0
340
#6
40.52.7
37.340.0
Auto10.7
Teleop19.2
End10.6
Second
5900
#53
17.90.1
16.416.5
Auto6.4
Teleop4.9
End6.6
blue by 21.7
5827
#50
39.62.7
34.937.6
Auto11.0
Teleop22.7
End5.8
Third
2212
#70
17.80.1
16.016.1
Auto6.5
Teleop6.8
End4.5
red by 1.1
3182
#34
16.72.7
13.416.1
Auto4.9
Teleop5.7
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
80%Cargo oddsEarned94%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
68%Hangar oddsEarned75%Hangar oddsEarned