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Red79
398626.7
306139.9
881810.4
Blue107
253936.8
50340.4
851621.8
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7411105010015079107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3061
#35
39.90.3
37.537.8
Auto11.0
Teleop20.9
End8.0
blue by 0.5
503
#11
40.40.0
42.742.7
Auto13.8
Teleop17.7
End8.8
Second
3986
#23
26.70.3
26.426.7
Auto5.0
Teleop12.0
End9.7
blue by 10.1
2539
#14
36.80.0
36.636.6
Auto9.8
Teleop15.0
End12.0
Third
8818
#53
10.40.3
9.910.3
Auto5.1
Teleop4.0
End1.3
blue by 11.4
8516
#39
21.80.0
19.819.8
Auto5.8
Teleop8.3
End7.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
71%Cargo oddsEarned88%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
66%Hangar oddsMissed96%Hangar oddsEarned