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Red80
179220.4
382412.0
12550.4
Blue90
398626.7
3346.3
140323.8
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86112501001508090

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
125
#12
50.41.6
51.249.6
Auto12.2
Teleop27.9
End10.3
red by 4.1
33
#10
46.31.0
48.047.0
Auto12.1
Teleop22.5
End11.7
Second
1792
#32
20.41.6
19.718.1
Auto7.8
Teleop7.4
End5.2
blue by 6.3
3986
#23
26.71.0
28.127.1
Auto5.0
Teleop12.0
End9.7
Third
3824
#71
12.01.6
13.111.5
Auto4.9
Teleop3.1
End4.0
blue by 11.7
1403
#30
23.81.0
25.524.4
Auto6.3
Teleop8.7
End8.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
85%Cargo oddsEarned81%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
75%Hangar oddsMissed96%Hangar oddsEarned