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Red150
409933.5
157760.6
441454.7
Blue107
87639.2
540643.2
64931.7
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16411650100150200250150107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.60.0
60.460.4
Auto13.8
Teleop33.8
End13.0
red by 17.3
43.20.4
43.643.2
Auto13.4
Teleop20.5
End9.3
Second
54.70.0
54.554.5
Auto12.8
Teleop34.7
End7.2
red by 15.5
876
#24
39.20.4
39.639.2
Auto11.3
Teleop18.5
End9.4
Third
4099
#34
33.50.0
33.333.4
Auto10.1
Teleop14.7
End8.8
red by 1.8
649
#20
31.70.4
32.131.7
Auto8.8
Teleop15.1
End7.8