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Red100
541426.3
147732.8
458710.6
Blue40
384726.7
55036.9
998712.5
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9055015020025010040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.80.5
34.735.3
Auto10.1
Teleop15.4
End7.3
red by 6.1
3847
#28
26.71.6
40.438.8
Auto6.1
Teleop13.5
End7.1
Second
26.30.5
32.232.7
Auto8.7
Teleop9.7
End7.9
red by 13.8
9987
#17
12.52.7
14.111.4
Auto4.1
Teleop2.9
End5.7
Third
4587
#23
10.60.5
13.113.7
Auto5.0
Teleop1.0
End4.7
red by 3.8
5503
#24
6.91.6
10.08.4
Auto4.3
Teleop0.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
81%Cargo oddsEarned63%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
83%Hangar oddsEarned60%Hangar oddsMissed