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Red58
17939.8
236337.8
33913.1
Blue43
99998.9
313629.0
159915.4
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions595502040801005843

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2363
Unranked
37.80.3
34.935.1
Auto12.4
Teleop23.4
End2.0
red by 8.8
3136
Unranked
29.00.8
29.428.6
Auto7.8
Teleop16.3
End4.9
Second
339
Unranked
13.10.4
9.19.5
Auto4.4
Teleop5.1
End3.6
blue by 2.3
1599
Unranked
15.40.8
16.916.1
Auto4.6
Teleop7.2
End3.6
Third
9.80.3
10.210.5
Auto3.9
Teleop2.9
End3.1
red by 0.9
9999
Unranked
8.91.4
9.07.6
Auto4.9
Teleop3.3
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
70%Cargo oddsEarned25%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
12%Hangar oddsMissed22%Hangar oddsMissed