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Red48
558811.8
413114.7
378618.5
Blue39
204635.9
32194.3
59412.2
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions414101020305060704839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3786
#16
18.50.8
13.314.1
Auto7.8
Teleop9.4
End1.3
blue by 17.4
35.90.4
40.339.8
Auto9.5
Teleop17.0
End9.4
Second
14.70.8
12.012.9
Auto4.7
Teleop6.0
End4.0
red by 10.4
3219
#29
4.30.4
2.62.1
Auto1.9
Teleop1.1
End1.3
Third
5588
#19
11.80.8
9.910.8
Auto4.0
Teleop5.3
End2.6
red by 9.6
5941
#18
2.20.4
-1.2-1.7
Auto1.7
Teleop-1.9
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
17%Cargo oddsEarned13%Cargo oddsMissed
Hangar
9%Hangar oddsMissed19%Hangar oddsEarned