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Red78
189917.4
594110.2
293040.8
Blue76
639013.6
129417.1
36037.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions716740506080901007876

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.81.0
44.245.2
Auto13.5
Teleop21.2
End6.1
red by 3.0
360
#4
37.90.7
36.236.9
Auto11.8
Teleop23.8
End2.2
Second
1899
#12
17.41.0
14.615.5
Auto5.0
Teleop8.3
End4.1
red by 0.2
1294
#19
17.10.7
18.018.7
Auto3.8
Teleop10.0
End3.4
Third
5941
#15
10.21.0
4.35.3
Auto3.3
Teleop3.9
End2.9
blue by 3.4
6390
#14
13.60.7
11.211.9
Auto4.4
Teleop4.5
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
54%Cargo oddsEarned58%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
53%Hangar oddsEarned44%Hangar oddsMissed