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Red40
55646.3
756112.0
477441.3
Blue64
461343.9
313230.0
650823.4
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63950501504064

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.31.5
38.436.9
Auto13.7
Teleop25.6
End1.9
blue by 2.6
43.91.7
37.235.6
Auto8.5
Teleop24.1
End11.2
Second
7561
#11
12.01.5
15.614.1
Auto1.7
Teleop7.6
End2.7
blue by 18.0
30.01.7
28.426.8
Auto12.4
Teleop14.4
End3.1
Third
5564
#10
6.31.5
8.46.9
Auto2.4
Teleop2.4
End1.5
blue by 17.1
23.41.7
19.217.5
Auto8.8
Teleop8.3
End6.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Cargo
54%Cargo oddsMissed83%Cargo oddsEarned
Hangar
10%Hangar oddsMissed86%Hangar oddsMissed