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Red110
468242.7
321850.8
746139.3
Blue173
177847.2
291074.4
999324.5
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141143100120160180110173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3218
#11
50.82.0
53.051.0
Auto14.6
Teleop26.0
End9.4
blue by 23.6
74.41.6
72.574.2
Auto13.6
Teleop49.2
End7.3
Second
42.72.0
45.743.7
Auto15.9
Teleop20.1
End6.8
blue by 4.5
47.21.6
44.846.4
Auto12.4
Teleop26.0
End9.4
Third
7461
#24
39.32.0
42.840.8
Auto9.5
Teleop21.8
End6.7
red by 14.8
9993
#15
24.52.7
26.429.1
Auto2.0
Teleop15.9
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
80%Sustainability oddsEarned87%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
89%Activation oddsMissed84%Activation oddsEarned