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Red158
142542.4
385928.8
207351.0
Blue125
107234.1
348220.1
469837.9
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11365050100150200158125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.00.9
49.550.4
Auto10.3
Teleop38.9
End2.1
red by 13.0
4698
#18
37.90.8
37.037.8
Auto6.4
Teleop28.9
End2.9
Second
42.40.9
41.041.9
Auto10.5
Teleop30.2
End1.8
red by 8.3
34.10.8
33.133.9
Auto6.9
Teleop28.0
End-0.4
Third
3859
#37
28.80.9
27.328.2
Auto7.9
Teleop18.4
End2.6
red by 8.7
3482
#11
20.10.8
19.119.9
Auto2.0
Teleop18.1
End0.1