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Red126
448142.5
385922.8
603647.9
Blue157
441450.6
167863.2
69626.8
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11315650100200126157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.90.4
47.247.6
Auto13.7
Teleop25.1
End9.1
blue by 15.3
63.20.3
63.163.4
Auto12.6
Teleop41.1
End9.6
Second
42.50.4
41.942.2
Auto9.5
Teleop26.7
End6.5
blue by 8.0
50.60.3
50.550.8
Auto11.0
Teleop32.6
End6.9
Third
3859
#25
22.80.4
22.222.5
Auto4.5
Teleop8.6
End9.7
blue by 4.0
696
#28
26.80.3
26.827.1
Auto7.1
Teleop12.2
End7.6