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Red131
593326.9
999316.2
449974.1
Blue82
294533.1
429343.6
549313.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109895015020013182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.11.5
69.971.3
Auto15.5
Teleop49.5
End6.5
red by 30.5
43.60.2
39.839.6
Auto9.3
Teleop26.4
End7.8
Second
5933
#25
26.91.5
25.126.6
Auto7.9
Teleop12.4
End6.9
blue by 6.1
33.10.2
28.928.7
Auto8.3
Teleop17.6
End7.5
Third
9993
#28
16.22.4
14.116.6
Auto2.5
Teleop7.9
End6.2
red by 2.8
5493
#39
13.40.2
16.316.1
Auto4.6
Teleop6.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
41%Sustainability oddsEarned23%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
81%Activation oddsEarned39%Activation oddsEarned