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Red99
193928.8
198652.5
642463.9
Blue131
198753.4
512625.4
501338.2
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16211605010015020099131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.91.2
65.864.6
Auto15.5
Teleop37.4
End9.8
red by 10.6
53.40.3
52.152.4
Auto15.6
Teleop30.2
End6.6
Second
52.51.2
54.353.1
Auto13.8
Teleop29.4
End8.5
red by 14.3
5013
#30
38.20.3
37.637.8
Auto6.6
Teleop22.2
End9.5
Third
1939
#39
28.81.2
30.729.5
Auto6.3
Teleop16.1
End6.2
red by 3.5
5126
#28
25.40.3
24.725.0
Auto9.5
Teleop11.9
End4.1