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Red75
418821.3
908610.0
450932.0
Blue61
881510.3
753819.1
363517.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70460204060801001207561

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.00.3
31.732.0
Auto11.3
Teleop14.5
End6.2
red by 12.9
19.10.3
18.819.1
Auto5.7
Teleop10.0
End3.5
Second
21.30.3
21.121.3
Auto6.8
Teleop7.9
End6.7
red by 3.6
3635
#15
17.70.3
17.417.7
Auto0.1
Teleop9.4
End8.2
Third
9086
#20
10.00.3
9.810.0
Auto2.4
Teleop5.2
End2.5
blue by 0.3
8815
#18
10.30.3
10.010.3
Auto2.3
Teleop3.0
End5.0