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Red184
441555.4
501055.3
10362.2
Blue151
448159.5
542743.1
519957.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions180161100150200250184151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
103
#3
62.20.5
59.760.1
Auto12.6
Teleop40.4
End8.5
red by 2.7
4481
#34
59.50.2
57.657.5
Auto14.8
Teleop36.3
End7.0
Second
4415
#42
55.40.5
54.955.4
Auto17.0
Teleop30.5
End7.3
blue by 2.4
5199
#24
57.80.2
58.057.8
Auto12.9
Teleop34.9
End8.3
Third
5010
#21
55.30.5
54.855.3
Auto12.1
Teleop33.8
End8.7
red by 12.1
5427
#63
43.10.2
45.445.2
Auto9.9
Teleop24.4
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
93%Sustainability oddsEarned88%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
96%Activation oddsMissed87%Activation oddsEarned