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Red195
233757.2
83651.6
300575.6
Blue191
159162.1
353951.1
448159.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182168100120140160200220240195191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#17
75.60.5
73.974.4
Auto18.7
Teleop46.8
End7.0
red by 13.5
1591
#28
62.10.7
60.060.7
Auto17.2
Teleop34.4
End8.4
Second
2337
#41
57.20.5
56.657.2
Auto13.3
Teleop34.6
End7.9
blue by 2.3
4481
#34
59.50.7
57.458.1
Auto14.8
Teleop36.3
End7.0
Third
836
#39
51.60.5
49.950.4
Auto13.5
Teleop28.6
End8.4
red by 0.6
51.10.7
50.451.1
Auto11.6
Teleop27.7
End9.5