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Red127
177150.4
521910.0
126147.6
Blue140
682947.5
691948.7
473014.0
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11311580100140160127140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.40.5
50.050.4
Auto15.9
Teleop27.2
End7.3
red by 1.8
48.70.7
48.048.7
Auto15.1
Teleop24.3
End9.2
Second
47.60.5
47.247.6
Auto13.8
Teleop25.8
End7.9
red by 0.2
47.50.7
46.747.5
Auto14.0
Teleop27.2
End6.2
Third
5219
#23
10.00.5
9.510.0
Auto1.8
Teleop1.0
End7.1
blue by 4.1
4730
#20
14.00.7
13.314.0
Auto2.4
Teleop6.7
End5.0