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Red145
440043.9
445024.7
49847.3
Blue129
602427.3
493031.7
293063.6
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12113050100150200145129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
498
#40
47.30.6
44.343.7
Auto12.3
Teleop26.9
End8.1
blue by 16.2
2930
#13
63.60.6
63.163.7
Auto17.1
Teleop37.4
End7.8
Second
4400
#16
43.90.6
43.943.3
Auto10.9
Teleop25.5
End7.7
red by 12.2
4930
#59
31.70.6
30.431.0
Auto6.5
Teleop19.9
End5.5
Third
4450
#54
24.70.6
25.925.4
Auto7.3
Teleop12.5
End5.0
blue by 2.7
6024
#45
27.30.6
27.227.7
Auto9.0
Teleop12.8
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
29%Sustainability oddsMissed27%Sustainability oddsEarned
Activation
71%Activation oddsEarned53%Activation oddsMissed