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Red124
583732.7
162546.3
226447.8
Blue126
178533.9
642452.0
432944.1
43%Model gave it57%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1311386080100120160180200220124126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.0
47.547.5
Auto12.6
Teleop25.6
End9.5
blue by 4.1
52.00.1
51.651.6
Auto12.6
Teleop33.0
End6.2
Second
46.30.0
45.945.9
Auto12.7
Teleop25.5
End8.0
red by 2.2
44.10.1
43.843.7
Auto13.5
Teleop21.1
End9.5
Third
5837
#16
32.70.0
32.432.4
Auto8.2
Teleop16.3
End8.1
blue by 1.2
1785
#29
33.90.1
33.533.4
Auto9.3
Teleop16.9
End7.7