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Red151
414356.8
409631.3
175658.8
Blue117
173642.5
565329.2
548436.2
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15910950100150200151117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.80.2
59.059.2
Auto14.9
Teleop34.7
End8.7
red by 16.4
42.50.2
42.843.0
Auto9.2
Teleop26.9
End6.4
Second
56.80.2
57.057.2
Auto13.5
Teleop34.2
End8.7
red by 20.5
36.20.2
36.536.7
Auto13.7
Teleop16.4
End6.2
Third
4096
#16
31.30.2
31.631.8
Auto9.7
Teleop13.8
End7.1
red by 2.1
5653
#25
29.20.2
29.529.7
Auto6.5
Teleop17.0
End5.6