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Red126
150147.8
155527.3
518843.9
Blue120
317642.2
394729.7
174139.5
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1281176080100140160180126120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.80.0
47.847.8
Auto13.5
Teleop27.5
End6.5
red by 5.7
3176
#11
42.20.0
42.242.2
Auto10.6
Teleop25.4
End5.9
Second
43.90.0
43.943.9
Auto11.1
Teleop23.0
End10.0
red by 4.4
39.50.0
39.539.5
Auto10.8
Teleop21.3
End7.1
Third
1555
#24
27.30.0
27.227.3
Auto7.5
Teleop12.8
End7.1
blue by 2.4
3947
#20
29.70.0
29.729.7
Auto7.8
Teleop16.1
End5.9