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Red70
91198.7
920829.9
46140.9
Blue81
155517.8
102439.2
498217.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7169556065758085907081

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
461
#12
40.90.4
33.233.7
Auto10.2
Teleop24.2
End6.6
red by 1.8
39.21.2
34.836.0
Auto12.0
Teleop22.8
End4.4
Second
9208
#14
29.90.4
24.625.0
Auto9.9
Teleop17.4
End2.6
red by 12.1
1555
#20
17.81.2
15.016.3
Auto4.3
Teleop7.5
End6.0
Third
9119
#32
8.70.4
8.48.8
Auto2.2
Teleop5.5
End1.1
blue by 8.6
4982
#28
17.31.2
15.016.3
Auto2.7
Teleop9.6
End5.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
3%Sustainability oddsMissed5%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
22%Activation oddsMissed33%Activation oddsEarned