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Red99
23435.6
856421.2
349434.9
Blue100
82935.5
29241.7
164616.8
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions100978012014099100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
234
#5
35.60.0
36.236.2
Auto11.2
Teleop17.6
End6.8
blue by 6.1
292
#13
41.70.2
40.841.0
Auto11.6
Teleop23.8
End6.3
Second
34.90.0
35.535.5
Auto10.0
Teleop16.4
End8.4
blue by 0.6
829
#6
35.50.2
34.634.8
Auto12.6
Teleop14.4
End8.5
Third
8564
#22
21.20.0
21.821.8
Auto6.4
Teleop9.3
End5.4
red by 4.3
1646
#25
16.80.2
15.916.1
Auto7.0
Teleop5.2
End4.7