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Red122
466121.9
221238.8
321142.1
Blue95
338841.9
431926.5
308322.1
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107975015012295

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3211
#18
42.11.2
41.442.6
Auto15.1
Teleop21.1
End6.0
red by 0.3
3388
#17
41.90.6
42.541.9
Auto9.1
Teleop23.4
End9.4
Second
2212
#11
38.81.2
37.338.4
Auto11.0
Teleop21.0
End6.3
red by 12.3
4319
#42
26.50.6
27.326.7
Auto10.8
Teleop9.4
End6.4
Third
4661
#36
21.91.2
20.721.9
Auto6.3
Teleop10.3
End5.5
blue by 0.3
3083
#35
22.10.6
22.722.1
Auto4.5
Teleop12.4
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
57%Sustainability oddsEarned35%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
65%Activation oddsEarned81%Activation oddsEarned