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Red161
50345.5
862B24.5
29745.5
Blue118
30253.0
353853.6
439515.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107134050150200250300161118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
297
#12
45.51.3
41.542.8
Auto11.1
Teleop26.7
End8.0
blue by 8.1
53.60.2
53.653.4
Auto11.0
Teleop32.9
End9.1
Second
503
#14
45.51.3
41.542.7
Auto13.7
Teleop22.4
End9.6
blue by 7.6
302
#8
53.00.2
53.052.8
Auto12.7
Teleop30.6
End9.1
Third
862B
#24
24.51.3
20.521.8
Auto5.0
Teleop12.7
End7.1
red by 8.9
4395
#25
15.70.2
15.715.4
Auto5.0
Teleop6.1
End4.7