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Red114
219942.6
83637.8
253721.7
Blue115
290016.9
173152.7
409932.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1081088090100120130140114115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.60.3
42.342.6
Auto12.5
Teleop20.5
End9.6
blue by 10.1
52.70.1
52.652.7
Auto12.0
Teleop32.8
End7.9
Second
836
#6
37.80.3
37.537.8
Auto10.9
Teleop17.1
End9.8
red by 5.6
32.20.1
32.132.2
Auto8.3
Teleop14.7
End9.2
Third
2537
#22
21.70.3
21.421.7
Auto7.3
Teleop8.8
End5.7
red by 4.8
2900
#14
16.90.1
16.816.9
Auto6.9
Teleop3.1
End7.0