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Red86
928027.2
754628.2
352618.2
Blue121
710226.5
742139.1
921319.6
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions47670208010012014016086121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.20.2
28.128.2
Auto4.9
Teleop22.9
End0.4
blue by 10.9
39.10.6
38.939.5
Auto4.8
Teleop33.6
End0.7
Second
27.20.2
27.127.2
Auto4.2
Teleop21.9
End1.2
red by 0.7
26.50.6
26.326.9
Auto6.8
Teleop18.5
End1.2
Third
3526
#30
18.20.2
18.018.2
Auto2.5
Teleop16.3
End-0.5
blue by 1.4
9213
#26
19.60.6
19.420.0
Auto4.4
Teleop14.6
End0.6