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Red126
505045.3
360436.8
653819.9
Blue120
440539.9
842328.2
473730.8
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1031026080120140160126120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.30.7
43.544.2
Auto14.0
Teleop23.9
End7.2
red by 5.5
4405
#17
39.90.5
38.939.4
Auto8.7
Teleop21.9
End9.4
Second
36.80.7
35.035.6
Auto10.9
Teleop17.5
End8.4
red by 6.0
4737
#11
30.80.5
29.830.3
Auto8.4
Teleop17.0
End5.4
Third
6538
#27
19.90.7
18.118.8
Auto7.6
Teleop8.8
End3.5
blue by 8.3
8423
#33
28.20.5
27.327.8
Auto8.7
Teleop13.8
End5.7