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Red202
141453.5
253967.0
17668.3
Blue192
150658.5
297462.1
58755.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions194174100120140160220240202192

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
176
#16
68.30.5
68.068.5
Auto17.0
Teleop40.3
End8.5
red by 6.2
2974
#44
62.10.4
62.062.4
Auto15.8
Teleop37.4
End6.9
Second
67.00.5
66.667.1
Auto15.4
Teleop40.1
End10.0
red by 8.5
1506
#31
58.50.4
58.458.7
Auto14.5
Teleop33.7
End8.5
Third
1414
#11
53.50.5
53.253.7
Auto14.5
Teleop32.0
End6.0
blue by 1.8
587
#8
55.30.4
55.255.5
Auto16.1
Teleop32.0
End6.2