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Red159
438151.2
600517.9
353867.9
Blue106
442245.7
335751.2
240522.1
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1421286080100120160180200220159106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.90.6
66.166.7
Auto17.6
Teleop40.2
End10.0
red by 16.7
51.20.4
52.151.8
Auto11.7
Teleop29.9
End9.6
Second
51.20.6
49.450.0
Auto17.9
Teleop24.6
End8.7
red by 5.5
45.70.4
46.646.3
Auto12.9
Teleop23.4
End9.4
Third
6005
#32
17.90.6
16.116.7
Auto1.8
Teleop8.9
End7.2
blue by 4.3
2405
#29
22.10.4
23.122.8
Auto2.5
Teleop12.5
End7.1