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Red160
721147.9
168452.2
561228.9
Blue153
233761.9
353866.5
785611.4
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13215550100200160153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.20.4
51.451.8
Auto12.0
Teleop30.7
End9.3
blue by 14.3
66.50.1
67.567.6
Auto17.7
Teleop38.4
End10.0
Second
47.90.4
47.147.5
Auto13.1
Teleop25.7
End9.2
blue by 14.0
61.90.1
62.963.1
Auto15.1
Teleop38.8
End7.9
Third
5612
#20
28.90.4
28.128.5
Auto5.0
Teleop14.7
End9.2
red by 17.5
7856
#36
11.40.1
12.412.5
Auto3.2
Teleop3.3
End5.0