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Red121
721147.9
168452.2
561228.9
Blue117
566043.4
353440.4
505331.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13911750100150200121117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.20.3
51.751.4
Auto12.0
Teleop30.7
End9.3
red by 8.8
43.40.1
42.442.5
Auto9.9
Teleop27.0
End6.6
Second
47.90.3
47.447.2
Auto13.1
Teleop25.7
End9.2
red by 7.5
3534
#11
40.40.1
39.439.6
Auto11.8
Teleop19.9
End8.8
Third
5612
#20
28.90.3
28.428.1
Auto5.0
Teleop14.7
End9.2
blue by 2.4
5053
#23
31.30.1
30.330.4
Auto10.2
Teleop14.6
End6.4