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Red115
785611.4
353866.5
233761.9
Blue118
561228.9
168452.2
721147.9
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15613250100200115118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.50.9
67.766.8
Auto17.7
Teleop38.4
End10.0
red by 14.3
52.20.3
51.451.1
Auto12.0
Teleop30.7
End9.3
Second
61.90.9
63.262.3
Auto15.1
Teleop38.8
End7.9
red by 14.0
47.90.3
47.246.9
Auto13.1
Teleop25.7
End9.2
Third
7856
#36
11.40.9
12.611.8
Auto3.2
Teleop3.3
End5.0
blue by 17.5
5612
#20
28.90.3
28.127.8
Auto5.0
Teleop14.7
End9.2