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Red143
265427.5
288352.3
298755.9
Blue159
472853.3
245153.7
304227.8
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140143100120160180143159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.90.3
55.655.9
Auto13.6
Teleop32.5
End8.9
red by 2.2
53.70.6
53.654.2
Auto12.3
Teleop31.4
End9.9
Second
52.30.3
52.152.3
Auto13.7
Teleop28.1
End9.9
blue by 1.0
53.30.6
53.253.8
Auto13.1
Teleop31.0
End8.9
Third
2654
#22
27.50.3
27.327.5
Auto8.7
Teleop12.0
End6.7
blue by 0.3
3042
#26
27.80.6
27.728.3
Auto7.8
Teleop11.7
End8.3