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Red154
235925.3
198765.6
421347.1
Blue125
180232.6
580146.5
245729.1
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1521096080100120140160180200154125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.60.3
65.365.6
Auto17.4
Teleop40.1
End8.1
red by 19.1
46.50.3
46.346.5
Auto9.6
Teleop27.9
End9.0
Second
47.10.3
46.947.1
Auto14.3
Teleop22.6
End10.2
red by 14.6
1802
#13
32.60.3
32.332.6
Auto6.5
Teleop18.4
End7.6
Third
2359
#12
25.30.3
25.025.3
Auto7.4
Teleop9.0
End8.8
blue by 3.9
2457
#22
29.10.3
28.929.1
Auto7.0
Teleop13.3
End8.9