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Red120
318457.9
199722.2
198637.5
Blue100
193940.9
882534.3
545440.5
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1291146080100140160180200120100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.90.0
56.256.2
Auto15.7
Teleop33.2
End8.3
red by 17.0
40.90.6
40.339.7
Auto7.2
Teleop26.2
End7.5
Second
37.50.0
42.642.6
Auto11.4
Teleop18.2
End7.8
blue by 3.0
5454
#11
40.50.6
35.134.5
Auto9.3
Teleop19.9
End11.3
Third
1997
#21
22.20.0
20.820.8
Auto2.1
Teleop13.2
End6.9
blue by 12.1
8825
#10
34.30.6
33.532.9
Auto11.1
Teleop16.6
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
36%Sustainability oddsEarned29%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
84%Activation oddsEarned63%Activation oddsEarned