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Red59
776333.5
264244.3
482814.3
Blue83
873824.8
560727.8
264024.1
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10376501502005983

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.30.8
44.744.0
Auto13.1
Teleop23.4
End7.8
red by 16.5
27.80.2
27.027.2
Auto10.1
Teleop9.8
End7.9
Second
33.50.8
34.033.2
Auto9.1
Teleop17.2
End7.3
red by 8.7
8738
#21
24.80.2
24.124.3
Auto8.6
Teleop12.6
End3.6
Third
4828
#26
14.30.8
14.713.9
Auto2.2
Teleop7.1
End5.0
blue by 9.9
2640
#18
24.10.2
23.423.6
Auto7.3
Teleop10.9
End6.0