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Red173
287750.9
872445.2
7851.0
Blue175
808552.5
19568.6
456443.3
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15317650100200250173175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78
#16
51.00.4
50.851.2
Auto13.4
Teleop29.3
End8.6
blue by 17.6
195
#4
68.60.3
68.668.9
Auto15.6
Teleop43.6
End8.7
Second
2877
#18
50.90.4
50.751.1
Auto12.9
Teleop29.5
End7.9
blue by 1.6
8085
#26
52.50.3
52.652.9
Auto12.6
Teleop30.8
End8.5
Third
8724
#10
45.20.4
45.045.4
Auto12.3
Teleop24.1
End8.0
red by 1.9
4564
#15
43.30.3
43.443.7
Auto12.9
Teleop24.3
End6.0