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Red152
21922.6
192358.9
253968.6
Blue141
179651.4
260152.5
33331.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16214150100150200152141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.60.0
68.668.6
Auto15.1
Teleop42.0
End10.2
red by 16.0
2601
#14
52.50.2
52.452.5
Auto14.4
Teleop29.1
End8.9
Second
58.90.0
58.958.9
Auto12.7
Teleop37.9
End9.3
red by 7.4
51.40.2
51.351.4
Auto11.0
Teleop30.2
End9.8
Third
219
#21
22.60.0
22.622.6
Auto8.3
Teleop8.1
End6.5
blue by 8.5
333
#28
31.20.2
31.031.2
Auto6.7
Teleop18.1
End6.3