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Red111
207021.7
1140.8
22229.8
Blue79
192335.2
167645.4
86285.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8591406010012014016011179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
11
#1
40.81.0
37.838.8
Auto14.1
Teleop19.0
End7.6
blue by 4.6
45.41.0
43.142.1
Auto10.4
Teleop27.2
End7.8
Second
222
#25
29.81.3
22.924.3
Auto7.8
Teleop14.4
End7.5
blue by 5.4
35.21.1
33.632.5
Auto9.8
Teleop14.8
End10.6
Third
2070
#22
21.71.5
20.221.6
Auto7.5
Teleop7.8
End6.4
red by 15.9
8628
#36
5.81.0
8.37.3
Auto-0.5
Teleop-0.7
End7.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
2%Sustainability oddsMissed4%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
54%Activation oddsEarned62%Activation oddsEarned