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Red128
140339.4
259040.0
871419.6
Blue119
331443.9
249537.3
901521.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10495406080120140160180128119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.00.7
39.340.0
Auto10.7
Teleop22.6
End6.7
blue by 3.9
43.90.5
39.840.4
Auto10.0
Teleop24.8
End9.1
Second
39.40.8
38.539.3
Auto12.0
Teleop19.6
End7.9
red by 2.1
37.30.6
32.833.4
Auto11.1
Teleop17.7
End8.6
Third
8714
#22
19.60.8
18.719.5
Auto4.8
Teleop7.0
End7.8
blue by 2.1
9015
#16
21.60.5
17.518.1
Auto5.7
Teleop9.5
End6.5