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Red110
207029.3
758727.1
851328.3
Blue121
689737.6
108932.1
475022.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8799050150200110121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2070
#11
29.30.6
28.729.3
Auto8.7
Teleop15.0
End5.5
blue by 8.3
6897
#16
37.60.3
37.337.7
Auto10.5
Teleop21.5
End5.6
Second
8513
#18
28.30.6
27.728.3
Auto10.3
Teleop10.4
End7.5
blue by 3.8
32.10.3
31.832.2
Auto9.5
Teleop16.1
End6.5
Third
7587
#17
27.10.6
26.527.1
Auto10.4
Teleop13.1
End3.6
red by 5.0
4750
#29
22.10.3
21.922.2
Auto7.3
Teleop12.1
End2.8