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Red122
87053.9
287255.3
33423.6
Blue136
301558.8
287525.3
146842.5
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138132050100200250300122136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.30.2
54.153.9
Auto15.3
Teleop29.7
End10.2
blue by 3.5
58.80.3
58.258.5
Auto15.1
Teleop35.7
End8.0
Second
870
#2
53.90.2
52.852.6
Auto12.8
Teleop31.5
End9.6
red by 11.4
42.50.3
41.842.1
Auto9.8
Teleop27.4
End5.2
Third
334
#28
23.60.2
22.522.3
Auto6.9
Teleop12.8
End3.9
blue by 1.6
2875
#18
25.30.3
24.524.9
Auto6.0
Teleop12.5
End6.7