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Red133
112619.3
150736.8
159158.6
Blue135
317343.7
574036.8
37935.8
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127118050100150200250300350133135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1591
#11
58.61.7
56.554.8
Auto15.3
Teleop33.9
End8.1
red by 14.9
3173
#14
43.71.0
44.445.4
Auto13.4
Teleop22.6
End7.7
Second
1507
#18
36.81.7
39.737.9
Auto15.0
Teleop14.6
End7.2
red by 0.1
36.81.0
33.134.1
Auto9.7
Teleop21.3
End5.9
Third
1126
#23
19.31.7
22.020.3
Auto5.7
Teleop6.0
End7.8
blue by 16.5
379
#20
35.81.0
37.738.7
Auto11.9
Teleop16.7
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Sustainability
38%Sustainability oddsMissed17%Sustainability oddsMissed
Activation
87%Activation oddsEarned81%Activation oddsEarned